It's Monday, and if you're not in the best mood to start the week then these NBA props are for you.
The pregame narrative: I'm fading three players tonight, headlined by an even-money assists prop for Khris Middleton. From a scoring standpoint, don't set high expectations for Brandon Miller or Tyrese Haliburton.
Check out these three picks in the best NBA prop bets for January 8.
NBA odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET 01/08/2024.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Middleton under 7.5 assists (+100)
At first glimpse, this line seems totally out of whack. Middleton has only averaged 4.8 assists per game this year, and he's never averaged more than 5.4 assists in any season of his career.
The reason tonight's number is so high — and shaded to the over — is that the Milwaukee Bucks won't have point guard Damian Lillard, who's out for personal reasons. As you might expect, Lillard leads Milwaukee in assists. That means someone else will have to step up.
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But don't expect it to be Middleton; at least not to this extent. The small forward has only hit this over twice in 31 games this season.
Keep in mind that Lillard averages 6.9 assists per game, which isn't a ton for a team leader. So in theory, there isn't a huge volume of vacated assists to go around.
And next on the team's assists-per-game rankings is Giannis Antetokounmpo (5.7), not Middleton. Given that the usual facilitator (Lillard) doesn't average 7.5 or more assists, there's no reason to expect Middleton to hit that mark tonight as a secondary passing option.
Key stat: Middleton has hit the under on 7.5 assists in both games played this year without Lillard, totalling 11 assists in those matchups.
Quick picks
Miller under 15.5 points (-129): The Chicago Bulls are a tough matchup defensively, and Miller is learning that the hard way.
Chicago plays at the slowest pace in the league (96.6 possessions per 48 minutes), which squeezes scoring opportunities.
This year's No. 2 overall pick has already faced Chicago twice, and neither showing was pretty. He shot 7-for-27 (25.9%) collectively and scored 12 or fewer points in both games.
On the season, Miller has hit this under in 17 of 29 games.
Haliburton under 23.5 points (-112): On Saturday, the Boston Celtics bottled up Haliburton, holding him to 17 points on just 5-of-17 shooting. He also had just seven assists, which is well below his league-leading average (12.7 APG).
But let's just focus on the scoring — or lack thereof. Haliburton has now hit this under in 10 of his past 14 games, averaging just 20.6 PPG in that span.
With another date against the defensively responsible Celtics (second in the NBA with a 109.9 defensive rating), another under makes perfect sense.
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