If 2023 taught us anything in Toronto, it’s that you can predict anything except the future

In fact, the corresponding rule for Toronto politics might be more in line with something from Yogi Berra: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." I mean honestly, looking a back to when 2023 began, I don't think anyone predicted this. How could we?

Consider: John Tory — whose name could be listed in the thesaurus as a synonym for "least exciting" — had just been elected by a landslide to a third term that could have made him the longest-serving mayor in Toronto history. The big controversy was about the "strong mayor" powers that meant he'd have a stranglehold on local politics for the foreseeable future. It just turned out that the amount of future that turned out to be foreseeable was exceedingly short. 

Did anyone predict a John Tory sex scand — ahem, uh — John Tory "inappropriate relationship" scandal? Or that at the first suggestion of scandal he'd resign within hours and walk away? 

Consider too, that when the year began Olivia Chow was retired from politics, teaching at Toronto Metropolitan University. She'd placed third in a run for mayor way back in 2014 and then lost a riding-level election for federal Parliament. She seemed a completely spent political force. 

Even when Chow announced her entry into the mayoral race, many of us expected she'd suffer the same fate as in 2014, an early name-recognition front-runner who faded during the campaign.

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Breaking News Headlines & Top Stories | The Star

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Pundits predict, fate laughs.

And so did Olivia, who rode a kind of "Good Vibes Only" campaign into office in a city where bad vibes seemed more to capture the zeitgeist. (Chalk one point up for Wells, whose third rule is "the candidate in the best mood wins.")

Then the immediate questions were about how or if she'd be able to lead the same city council John Tory had commanded, which lasted until Tory's deputy mayor Jennifer McKelvie switched from campaigning against Chow to being a core part of her team, alongside former Tory allies like Paul Ainslie, and even people like Jon Burnside (who had begged political mentor Tory not to resign) offered early assessments that Chow was "hitting it out of the park." Turned out winning power helps make a lot of friends. 

Which leads us to also consider that back in January 2023, a theme and pressing problem was Premier Doug Ford just absolutely bullying our city into submission, laughing at Tory's requests for more cash (and even taking some away), ramming Greenbelt changes down everyone's throat, imposing strong mayor powers that ultimately left Ford as the Superstrong Ubermayor, rushing through a demolition job on Ontario Place, and more. 

Even during the election campaign, one of the widespread predictions about Chow as a potential mayor was that she'd inevitably wind up as a sparring partner (and punching bag) for Boss Hogtown over at Queen's Park. 

Now, Ontario Place is still on the spa track today. But I'm not sure how many of us predicted the relentless fall of Ford as a political force, and the relentless series of reversals he made of policies he'd dug in. Or his attempt at a "face turn" — to borrow professional wrestling lingo — to become a pal and tag team partner to Mayor Chow, which culminated in uploading the Gardiner and DVP to the province's books (as Tory had once requested in vain) and raining money on the city. 

Now, not everything was surprising. When the year started, we had no idea when the Eglinton Crosstown would open. As the year ends, we have no idea when the Eglinton Crosstown will open. Predictably, the attempt to wrangle the roaring success of CaféTO patios into permanent rules just about killed the initiative. Predictably, the attempt to make drinking alcohol in parks legal treated a normal activity like an illicit dirty secret. Predictably, traffic congestion got even worse (which didn't seem possible, though it turns out worsening traffic is not only always possible in Toronto, but likely). 

Even in a year defined by the unexpected, there are some lasting truths. 

So where does all this leave us looking ahead to 2024? Well, it certainly feels like maybe there's a sliver more optimism at city hall, with a mayor who believes doing things differently is possible and has shown some early ability to make friends and inch towards her goals. But it also feels like maybe Chow's smooth-sailing ship is likely to enter choppier waters, especially as even some expected allies are grumbling about her leadership on recent decisions about Yonge-Dundas Square, Rob Ford Stadium and the fine print of the "new deal" with Ford. The flurry of good-news funding headlines to end the year notwithstanding, the budget process in the weeks ahead is going to feature painful service cuts or painful tax increases or both.

(If you're interested in Chow's own reflections on 2023, and lookahead to 2024, she visited me in the Star podcast studio for an episode of This Matters posted Friday.)

Maybe 2023 showed that it's foolish to try to read the tea leaves, because their appearance just means your cup is empty — they are remnants of what you already had to drink, not an indicator of what's being poured for you next. About 70 years ago, British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan explained the biggest challenge for political leaders, and the biggest obstacle to political fortune tellers too: "events, dear boy, events." 

2023 was an eventful year. My prediction for 2024? Events, dear reader. Events.